COP31 Countdown: Türkiye Pushes World's First "35-by-35" Global Electrification Target

The 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) will take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026. At the heart of this year's agenda, the Turkish presidency has proposed the world's first "35-by-35" electrification target—raising electricity's share of global final energy consumption from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035. This marks the first time in COP history that a quantitative target has been set for electricity, signaling a shift in global climate governance from the "era of pledges" to the "era of implementation."

COP31 · Antalya, Türkiye

The target was formally unveiled by COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum, Türkiye's Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, at UN Headquarters in New York on September 21, and has received technical endorsement from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The IEA's Special Report on Electrification finds that using already available technologies, the electrification rate can reach 33%; achieving the 35% goal would require global electricity demand to grow by approximately 1,400 TWh per year—double the average of the past decade—grid build-out to accelerate by 40%, and battery storage capacity to reach roughly 2,900 GW by 2035.

IRENA's analysis further notes that under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario, renewables would need to supply about 78% of global electricity by 2035 (versus 31.7% in 2024) to support the 35% electrification target. This implies annual renewable capacity additions of 1,200 GW over the next decade, nearly double the record 693 GW added in 2025.

The target is accompanied by three complementary commitments: halving the projected growth of municipal solid waste by 2035, reducing building energy-use intensity by at least 25%, and increasing the global circular material use rate to 15%. The IEA estimates that if achieved, fossil-fuel-importing countries could cut annual energy import bills by roughly USD 400 billion, with average household energy bills falling by 15%.

However, critics point out that the initiative does not explicitly require new electricity to come from clean sources, creating a risk of "electrification as a Trojan horse for fossil-fuel expansion." Environmental groups such as 350.org have called for electrification to proceed hand-in-hand with a rapid phase-out of coal, oil, and gas.

 IEA: Renewables to Become World's Top Power Source by 2026

Commentary:

The "35-by-35" target is a landmark innovation in the COP process. Since COP1 in Berlin in 1995, climate negotiations have long focused on total carbon emissions and renewable capacity, yet never set a quantitative target for electricity—the central carrier of the energy transition. By elevating electrification from a "means" to a "goal," Türkiye's initiative carries comparable significance to the Paris Agreement's enshrinement of 1.5°C in 2015.

The data suggests the target is extremely challenging but not impossible. With electricity currently accounting for roughly 23% of final energy consumption, reaching 35% in nine years requires doubling the annual growth rate of electricity demand. The IEA's analysis offers a clear pathway: about half of road transport oil demand and half of global space-heating demand can be electrified cost-competitively today. Electric vehicles already avoid 2.3 million barrels of oil per day; under the High Electrification Scenario this rises to 18 million barrels by 2035—exceeding 15% of current global daily oil production.

Yet the real bottleneck lies not on the demand side, but on the supply and grid sides. IRENA data shows approximately 2,500 GW of renewable projects worldwide are awaiting grid connection permits, and annual grid investment must rise from roughly USD 500 billion to nearly USD 1 trillion. Without synchronized grid upgrades, the 35% electrification target will only exacerbate curtailment and price volatility. Spain's doubled curtailment to over 6 TWh in 2026 serves as a real-world warning of this risk.

The deeper controversy concerns whether the electrification will be "green." Critics rightly note that if new electricity comes from coal or gas, electrification could actually increase emissions. Türkiye's own electrification target is just 25% by 2035—below the global goal—and its energy mix remains heavily dependent on imported natural gas. This gap between rhetoric and action is precisely what environmental groups fear.